Witney Seibold Presents The Oscar Winners

The 2011 Academy Award ceremony is only a few days away, and the bets are being placed. No doubt your office has a pool of some sort, or you’re attending a party with an admission fee. Perhaps you just promised to do something embarrassing if you lose. But it’s entirely like that if you’re a good movie geek like me, you have something invested in who wins the Academy Awards this year. As your humble writer and pseudo-expert on the matter, I offer the following advice on where to bet. Here are my Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture: “The Social Network.”

Many people favor “The King’s Speech” as it appeals to the Academy’s majority of older voters. It’s also backed by the notorious Weinstein brothers, and they have a reputation for hyper-advertising their projects until the Academy can think of nothing else. What’s more, it peripherally involves World War II, and the old joke goes that any film with Nazis is a shoo-in for the Oscar. I still hold that the film of the year, however, if “The Social Network.” Not only is it about something currently topical and significant (the way young people look at communication), but it’s is possessed of that banter-y 1970s edge that so many Oscar films these days seem to be lacking. It’s a film about modern business, and how strength of character (or weakness thereof) can dominate over innovation.

Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth

Colin Firth is good in just about anything he does. This year he is faced off by a group in incredibly talented men, including Jeff Bridges for “True Grit.” Bridges beat Colin Firth last year for his role in “Crazy Heart,” when Firth really blew everyone away with his heartbreaking portrayal of a grieving gay man in “A Single Man.” Firth is always deserving, and his portrayal of the stammering king of England in “The King’s Speech” is excellent, but he will definitely win this year as a makeup for last year.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian Bale

While I would love to see John Hawkes be awarded for his subtle and threatening turn in “Winter’s Bone,” or Geoffrey Rush get another statue for his flip speech therapist in “the King’s Speech,” the clear champion is the always excellent Christian Bale in “The Fighter.” His twitchy drug addict compiled most of his strengths as an actor, and the result was gripping and entertaining. Bale was funny in certain scene, heartbreaking in others, and was able to flex that muscle of insanity he has always possessed. Bale shall win.

Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman

Natalie Portman has rarely registered with me. The only film of hers that really impressed me was “The Other Boleyn Girl,” where she played a lip-smacking vamp with more energy than she had previously possessed. She’s usually kind of wispy, kind of weak, kind of milquetoast, and, as a a result, comes across better in roles where she has to be wimpy. Her role in “Black Swan,” however, played to those strengths of hers. Again, my heart is with “Winter’s Bone,” and Jennifer Lawrence’s firm, resolute performance as a beleaguered teen seeking her absent father was astonishing. However, Portman for the win.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Melissa Leo

Historically, the Academy has given the Supporting Actress award to feisty, matronly types. There are two of said type in this category (Leo, and Jacki Weaver from “Animal Kingdom”), and Leo, previously so good in “Frozen River,” will take away the award as a trashy, be-coiffed petty tyrant in control of a cadre of beastly sisters. Amy Adams is also nominated for the same film in the same category however, and, historically, those cancel one another out. If that’s the case, my second choice would be Hailee Stienfeld in the remake of “True Grit.” She’s the one driving the story, and is excellent.

Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”

Of course, the Pixar film will win. My heart is typically with the underdog in this category, however, and while “Toy Story 3” was a surprisingly melancholy film about letting go, Sylvain Chomet’s “The Illusionist” was heartbreaking and beautiful, and managed to recapture a lot of the magic of that old master craftsman, Jacques Tati. We’ll see if theAcademy voters go for the shoo-in, of skew more classical.

Art Direction: “Inception”

“Inception’s” twisty-turny visuals were made using a combination of state-of-the-art CGI, and a huge amount of good ol’ fashioned practical effects, making for one of the best looking thrillers in many years (“Avatar,” perhaps, notwithstanding). My suspicion is that “Inception” will sweep most of the technical awards this year, a) because it deserves them, and b) to placate the genre-loving fanboys that the Academy is trying to capture. Heck, the only reason that there are 10 best picture nominees these days is because there was an uproar over “The Dark Knight.” Christopher Nolan’s following film will, therefor, get accolandes.

Cinematography: “The Social Network”

Wally Pfister is just as strongly in contention for his work on “Inception,” but Jeff Cronenweth’s work on “The Social Network” more powerfully draws the eye. The way he plays with light makes a film that takes place mostly in small, dull rooms look fantastic. His photography crackles with the same energy that the film’s dialogue does, and his moody low light reflects the moral emptiness of the characters. It’s a unique look that deserves the award.

Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”

While the classy period costumes in “The King’s Speech” and in “True Grit” are wonderful (Hailee Steinfeld’s too-big outfit is particularly notable), the Academy usually goes the more fun route in the costume category, and rewards the freakier outfits. While the zipper-heavy outfits in Julie Taymor’s disappointing “the Temptest” were a glorious combination of Victorian puritanism and leather fetishwear, I think Colleen Atwood’s creative and varied designs in Tim Buton’s disappointing “Alice in Wonderland” will win. The Mad Hatter alone is worth of the award, as he was draped in an ill-fitting suit, made of other clothes. The film wasn’t great, but Tim Buton always manages to make his films look terrific.

Best Directing: David Fincher

Each of his films has been notable in some way, and while the same can be said of Darren Aronofsky and David O. Russel, Fincher is the clear forefront of this new generation of edgy directors. Here is a man who can make a serial killer movie, a locked-room thriller, a bizarre Hollywood weepy, and a spitfire media commentary all with equal aplomb. Even if “The Social Network” ends up losing the best picture award, Fincher will most certainly win in this category.

Best Documentary Feature: “Exit Through the Gift Shop”

I have only seen three of the five nominees, but the mindfudgery of “Exit Through the Gift Shop” will take the cake over heavier fare like “Inside Job” and “Restrepo.” Bansky’s film about the singlehanded takedown of the street art movement is a fascinating inside-out look at the way artistic trends move, and it’s loaded with funny moments and bizarre characters. If any other film challenegs this crowd-pleaser, it would be the hugely thorough “Inside Job,” which details, painstakingly, what caused this horrid financial crisis we’re currently still mired in.

Best Documentary Short: ???

I have, sadly, not seen any of these nominees. Your guess will have to do.

Best Editing: “127 Hours”

It’s a wonder why “Inception” was not nominated in this category, but, having said that, “127 Hours” really does have the best editing of the nominees. The film was astonishing for taking a tale of one man in one location, and making it seem taught and quickly-paced. The film seemed to take place in a single instant, and even one bad edit could have ruined that. Jon Harris will win this award. If there is any second choice, it would be, I suppose, Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter for “The Social Network.”

Best Foreign Language Film: “In a Better World”

I have only seen “Biutiful” and “Dogtooth” in this category. “Biutiful” is one of the worst films of the year, and will not win this award. It should also be ignored. “Dogtooth” is a psychologically twisted film about mental control and insular incest, and is one of the best films of the year. It is, however, perhaps a mite too weird for the Academy, what with the incest and all. I have not seen the Danish entry, “In a Better World,” as it has not yet been released widely in the U.S., but it has won many of the “advance” awards, like the Golden Globes, and, on that basis, it is favored to win.

Best Makeup: “The Wolfman”

“Barney’s Version” has some age makeup. “The Way Back” makes good looking actors look bug-bitten, chapped, and frozen. But Rick Baker’s work on “The wolfman” is the only one that is fun andcreative, and required a lot of energy. I loved the monsters suits, and the the monster masks, and the monster fights. It’s too bad the film wasn’t very good.

Best Original Score: “The Social Network”

Again, a hip young film, true, which doesn’t have any of the usual classical cues that this category is noted for, but Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross managed to techno their way into my heart with their moody electronics in “The Social Network.” It’s a perfect bland of sound an content. Each of the nominees in thiis category, however, did excellent jobs, and I would not be disappointed, nor surprised, if any of the other ones wins, including Alexandre DeSplat for “The King’s Speech,” Hans Zimmer from “Inception,” A.R. Rahman for “127 Hours,” or even John Powell for “How to Train Your Dragon.”

Best Song: “If I Rise”

Feh on “Country Strong.” Randy Newman is still a bit too saccharine for me, and the song from “Tangled” was the only one I don’t remember. This leaves the best song award going to Dido’s sweet, gentle and quiet hymn from “127 Hours.” It’s a good song, I suppose, but the fun songs rarely win, or are even nominated in this category. There was a long stretch there where every Best Song winner had the word “heart” in the title. The era of the dull ballad largely lives on. Let’s hope that Dido wins.

Best Animated Short: “The Gruffalo”

Jacob Shuh and Max Lang adapted the famed children’s book onto film, and managed to make it atmospheric, and thematically strong. It’s clear and entertaining and, with voices by Helena Bonham Carter, Robbie Coltrane and John Hurt, has the best pedigree. My favorite in the category, thuogh, is probably the gently peculiar “The Lost Thing,” about a man who must find a home for a surreal creature he finds on a beach. That’s where my heart is. Pixar’s “Day & Night,” also has a fair shake, as it strongly resembles an experimental Chuck Jones film from the 1960s.

Best Live-Action Short: “God of Love”

This Oscar is usually awarded to the film that makes you want to kill yourself, and by that standard, “The Confession” is the clear winner; it;’s about a young boy who plays some pranks that go horribly, horribly awry, all so he’ll have something to confess at his first confession. Argh. My heart and my mind, though, rest with “God of Love” a twee and deadpan comedy about a nebbish determined to win the heart of an uninterested woman by using magical love darts. It’s like Wes Anderson finally did it right, and the film is hilarious.

Best Sound Editing: “Inception”

Yeah. Probably.

Best Sound Mixing: “Salt”

Well, it’ll probably also be “Inception,” but “Salt” was really good, wasn’t it?

Best Visual Effects: “Inception”

I always liked this category, as it allowed the big action blockbusters and genre films to be mentioned alongside the usual heavy-hitters. This year has some wonderful oddball entries like “Alice in Wonderland,” the seventh “Harry Potter” film, and even “Hereafter,” which was notable in that the effects served the story, and not the other way ’round. But there’s no way that the trippy dream visuals of “Inception” will lose. Christopher Nolan is a master of effects, and knows how to make things look right.

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”

Again, some strong ones. “Winter’s Bone” was well written in its restraint. “Toy Story 3” even had some interesting emotional moments, equating the lives of toys with the loss of innocence. But so much has been said of the fiery banter of “The Social Network” that there’s no way it will lose. Aaron Sorkin is a star screenwriter whose screenplay deftly juggles its witty banter with important statements about all the usual modern ways of connection. It’s a screenplay that, wisely, doesn’t bank on the images of Facebook.com, and instead makes interesting characters. Add to that a “Citizen Kane” parallel, and you’ve got a surefire winner.

Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”

This one’s pretty much up in the air (even though I’m pretty sure that Christopher Nolan will not win), as it covers so much ground. “The Fighter” captured the lingo correctly, and made all the character move in believable ways. “The Kids Are All Right” may have been a bit unfair, but was also believable. Mike Leigh usually composes his screenplays with his actors, so his nomination of “Another Year” is, I’m guessing, an acknowledgment of his craft. The favorite is probably “The King’s Speech.”

Let the betting begin.